While President Donald Trump and his administration’s advisors are exponentially superior to former President Biden and his Obama acolyte handlers, we must be mindful that Donald Trump is transactional, doing what’s best for Donald Trump and his deals, as well as his abilities as a master bullshit artist and tendency to distort facts, exaggerate, and make false as a negotiating tactic.

Therefore, I am challenged to review the United States/Ukraine minerals agreement, which is meant to reimburse the United States for its part in delivering weapons and financial assistance to Ukraine and its conflict with Russia. Or, at least, that is the assertion being used to assuage American concerns in the lead-up to the 2026 mid-term elections.

How much did we really transfer to Ukraine?

While the government’s accounting is deceptive by design, a January 20, 2025 report by the Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs suggests that the U.S. aid to Ukraine, as of September 2024, is approximately $183 billion. <Source: U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine - United States Department of State>

What are the actual terms and conditions of the “Agreement?”

As far as I can tell, only the United Kingdom’s The Telegraph has revealed any details of this closely-held agreement.

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licenses issued to third parties” for the future monetization of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favor of the US.

It states that “for all future licenses, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals.” Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licenses and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce. <Source>

I cannot verify the authenticity of the alleged document and have reason to doubt its authenticity because, from its appearance, this looks like the first outrageous demand, with the actual terms and conditions to be negotiated in further sessions. Likewise, federal agreements adhere to federal, not state, laws.

Published Valuations are bullshit…

Rare earth minerals are not exceptionally rare but expensive to mine, refine, and convert to usable forms. Even if one values the estimated in situ wealth of minerals, production costs often greatly outweigh the value of any marketable minerals. Otherwise, the government or private enterprise would have invested in their recovery.

Before the war, Ukraine’s total mining output was only $15 billion per year, mainly coal and metal ores, which is suspiciously low for a country with “trillions of dollars of minerals.”

The idea of the US extracting $500 billion from a Ukraine mineral deal is absurd.

Bottom line…

The innocent civilians of all combatant parties deserve peace and to remain unmolested by their respective governments.

The American taxpayers need relief from our elite grifter class, who exist on the spectrum of political corruption.

Much of the money allocated by Congress to support Ukraine was given to U.S. defense contractors and cycled through intermediaries such as politically connected non-governmental humanitarian organizations, which has led to inefficiencies and a lack of direct impact on Ukraine’s war effort. No matter the outcome, the military-industrial complex will continue to do well as near-empty stockpiles of fully depreciated, aged, and obsolete U.S. weapons will be replaced at significantly higher costs.

Did both parties agree to blow up the deal before someone called bullshit?

I remain skeptical of all politicians, no matter their professed intentions.

Hence, we are so screwed.

-- Steve