THE GREATEST CONSPIRACY THEORY
THE RISE OF ANOTHER UGLY BUILDING

THE ECONOMY: FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS DO FIGURES

The government gets its headlines with preliminary statistics and then revises them after the fact…

Reuter

US fourth-quarter labor costs revised higher; productivity growth lowered
March 2, 2023

Hourly compensation increased at a 4.9% pace, instead of a 4.1% rate as previously reported. It rose at an 8.2% rate in the third quarter and grew at a 4.4% rate compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

With labor costs revised higher, growth in nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, was downgraded to a 1.7% rate from the previously reported 3.0% pace in the fourth quarter. Economists forecast productivity growth being lowered to a 2.6% rate. <Source>

The comparison between previously reported and revised numbers…

B2-hdr Table-b2<Source>

Note: The apparatchiks in the bureaucracy seek to please their managers first and then the regime in power. Every politician wants a great headline, even if it overstates the truth and minimizes the damage. Professionals who use this data know how to compensate for likely errors and use a multi-factor approach in making their own projections. 

I find it amazing how many economists, especially the Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman at the New York Times, are consistently wrong, especially when they stray outside the limits of their expertise in opinion editorials. My go-to economists include Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, Walter Williams, Thomas Sowell, and a few others. 

Bottom line…

When it comes to happy talk, count the money in your wallet and check the return on your deposits and assets against inflation. Believe the government at your own peril.

It's a bitch when we can't count on our government to treat us like adults, tell us the truth, and leave us to make our own decisions.

We are so screwed.

-- Steve


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell

“Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar

“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS

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