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WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS CLIMATE STORY?

El-nino-la-nina

It is no longer enough for “journalists” to report the news; they must somehow craft it into a narrative – a progressive communist democrat narrative using the regime’s interpretation of the fashionable science of the day.

Look at the headline, “In the short term, climate change is favoring La Niña events, research suggests,” and you will find several illustrations of problematical reporting.

(1)  Unlike the weather, a short term observable and measurable phenomena, climate change is a  phenomena that stretches over long time periods of hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years. Even today’s weather observations are not reported as temperatures, but anomalies – differences when measured by a fixed thirty-year baseline. The longest El Nino in the modern record lasted 18 months, while the longest La Niña lasted 33 months.

(2)  Climate change, as a concept, has no favorites – it is what it is – and, by definition, cannot favor individual phenomena. The key tenet to remember is “correlation is not causation.”

(3)  There is no scientific method for attributing weather events to climate change given the intrinsic variability of nature.

(4) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is not well understood, nor does it appear to be predictable. Most global climate models in use misrepresent El Niño/La Niña events and are incapable of predicting their future state.

(4)  “At some point, we expect anthropogenic, or human-caused, influences to reverse these trends and give El Niño the upper hand.” This is unbelievable speculation and not a scientific finding. The truth is that the drivers of climate change such as the Sun’s energy output in all spectral bands, cosmic rays, the Earth’s position relative to the Sun, the Earth’s precessional and rotational dynamics, the Earth’s magnetosphere, plate tectonics and vulcanology, the deep ocean currents, the internal dynamics of the Earth, and the most significant greenhouse gas of all, water vapor, are all macro phenomena that cannot be mitigated by man’s efforts, no matter how heroic.

(5)  Note the weasel-words “suggest,” “could,” “possibility,” and  “expected.”

In the short term, climate change is favoring La Niña events, research suggests.

Forecasters are predicting a “three-peat La Niña” this year. This will be the third winter in a row that the Pacific Ocean has been in a La Niña cycle, something that’s happened only twice before in records going back to 1950.

[OCS: 1950? 72-year-old climate records that are suspect due to mishandling and manipulation is a time range that is meaningless in terms of climate change?]

The new research, recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, offers an explanation.

“The Pacific Ocean naturally cycles between El Niño and La Niña conditions, but our work suggests that climate change could currently be weighing the dice toward La Niña,” says lead author Robert Jnglin Wills, a research scientist in atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington. “At some point, we expect anthropogenic, or human-caused, influences to reverse these trends and give El Niño the upper hand.”

[OCS: Man cannot change the weather. People throughout the Pacific Northwest, especially Oregon and Washington, have a favorite saying. “You cannot change the weather, but you can change your mood and your clothes.”]

Scientists hope to predict the direction of these longer-term El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate trends in order to protect human life and property.

[OCS: Hope is not a plan. The best methods of protecting human life and property are commonsense, risk-based property zoning and adequate building codes. All resisted by developers who see profits, not perils!]

This is an important question over the next century for regions that are strongly influenced by El Niño, which includes western North America, South America, East and Southeast Asia, and Australia,” Wills says.

El Niño and La Niña events have wide-ranging impacts, affecting patterns of rainfall, flooding, and drought around the Pacific Rim. A La Niña winter tends to be cooler and wetter in the Pacific Northwest and hotter and drier in the US Southwest. Other worldwide effects include drier conditions in East Africa, and rainier weather in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Knowing what to expect in the future helps communities prepare for potential weather in the coming season and in years to come.

[OCS: From ultra-hot deserts to polar conditions, man has been able to survive and thrive by adaptation – and so it will be in the future. There is no evidence of a destructive weather pattern, and Black Swan events like volcanic eruptions or asteroid strikes are not predictable or preventable. You don’t build homes on the scenic slope of a volcano and then wonder why lava is running through your living room.]

Global warming is widely expected to favor El Niños. The reason is that the cold, deep water rising to the sea surface off South America will meet warmer air. Anyone who’s sweated knows that evaporation has a cooling effect, so the chillier ocean off South America, which has less evaporation, will warm faster than the warmer ocean off Asia. This decreases the temperature difference across the tropical Pacific and lightens the surface winds blowing toward Indonesia, the same as occurs during El Niño. Past climate records confirm that the climate was more El Niño-like during warmer periods.

[OCS: Global warming is followed by global cooling as climate regresses to an unknown mean with unknown amplitude and periodicity. Ideologies, politics, and taxes are all impotent when controlling or changing climate, locally or on a global scale.]

But while Earth’s atmosphere has warmed in recent decades, the new study shows a surprising trend in the tropical ocean. The authors looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ship-based measurements and ocean buoys from 1979 to 2000. The Pacific Ocean off South America has actually cooled slightly, along with ocean regions farther south. Meanwhile, the western Pacific Ocean and nearby eastern Indian Ocean have warmed more than elsewhere. Neither phenomenon can be explained by the natural cycles simulated by climate models. This suggests that some process missing in current models could be responsible.

[OCS: Ship-based sea temperature readings are prone to significant errors. Buoys are point observations, and findings cannot be projected or mapped onto large areas. The best temperature records come from satellites – but extend back a minimal number of years. Infrared radiation measurements collected by satellites and used to intuit sea surface temperature have been collected since 1967. Oxygen-based measurements intuiting air temperatures go back to 1978.]

The upshot of these changes on either side of the tropical Pacific is that the temperature difference between the eastern and western Pacific has grown, surface winds blowing toward Indonesia have strengthened, and people are experiencing conditions typical of La Niña winters. The study focuses on temperature patterns at the ocean’s surface. Thirty years of data is too short to study the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events.

“The climate models are still getting reasonable answers for the average warming, but there’s something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, that is off,” Wills says.

The researchers aren’t sure why this pattern is happening. Their current work is exploring tropical climate processes and possible links to the ocean around Antarctica. Once they know what’s responsible, they may be able to predict when it will eventually switch to favor El Niños.

“If it turns out to be natural long-term cycles, maybe we can expect it to switch in the next five to 10 years, but if it is a long-term trend due to some processes that are not well represented in the climate models, then it would be longer. Some mechanisms have a switch that would happen over the next few decades, but others could be a century or longer,” Wills says.

The study took place before this year’s potential triple La Niña was announced. But Wills is cautious about declaring victory.

[OCS: “Victory?” Victory means overcoming an enemy or antagonist, possibly getting the desired scientific results. For the foreseeable future, man cannot be victorious over weather or climate. As for a victory of correctly describing nature, scientific findings and conclusions can be falsified and rendered as garbage in the blink of an eye or the publication of the next following paper.]

These year-to-year changes are very unpredictable and it’s important not to get too hung up on any individual year—it doesn’t add a lot of statistical weight,” Wills says. “But I think it’s something that we should watch for in the next few years.”

Coauthors of the study are from the University of Washington, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Funding came from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Source: University of Washington

Original Study DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100011

Here is what the researchers said…

Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change

Abstract

Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state-of-the-art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large-scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to tropical-mean warming, which shows little multi-decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.

Plain Language Summary

Regional climate change depends not only on the magnitude of global warming, but also on the spatial pattern of warming. We show that the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature changes since 1979 is highly unusual, and many aspects of it cannot be reproduced in current climate models, even when accounting for the influence of natural variability. We find a particularly large discrepancy in the rate of warming within the western Pacific Ocean and eastern Indian Ocean, which suggests that models have systematic biases in the response of sea-surface temperature patterns to anthropogenic forcing, because the contribution of natural variability to multi-decadal trends is thought to be relatively small in this region.

Our work raises the possibility that the recent trends toward more La-Niña-like conditions may be partly a response to anthropogenic forcing, even though most existing climate model and paleoclimate evidence suggests that trends will eventually reverse toward more El-Niño-like conditions, with an associated shift in regional climate trends.

Original Study DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100011

Bottom line…

Few people will venture past the headline of the press release. Even fewer people will read the actual research. Most will continue to believe what they currently believe with little room for original thought or skepticism.

But the impression created is that global climate change is linked to and possibly responsible for the weather we are experiencing. Of course, this assumes facts not in evidence.

We are so screwed when we use climate change to drive a political agenda seeking to gain or maintain power over nations, the economy, and people’s lives.

-- Steve

Disclaimer: I make no claims or assertions on the researchers, scientific findings, or their presentation in a scientific form and format.


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell

“Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar

“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS