2020 ELECTION: GOP IN DECLINE?
REMEMBERING PEARL HARBOR -- DECEMBER 7, 1941

ELECTION 2020: IT IS NOW A STATISTICAL CASE

Welcome to Day + 33…

vote-day-after-33

Pooped…

It appears that a great number of Americans are fatigued from the constantly changing court battles, most of which do not allege election fraud but various constitutional and procedural failures. And, while many of the allegations are prima facie true, it appears that courts are reluctant to interfere in the election and may be stalling court action to play out the clock. While it is likely that the courts may rule in favor of sanctions and procedural changes after the inauguration, I can see no pending court action that will change the apparent course of history.

Therefore any fights and redress must be initiated in the state legislatures where, even in Republican-dominated states, Republicans talk big and do nothing. Like purple unicorns, they are there for you right up to the moment you need them.

Most Americans, therefore, appear emotionally and intellectually prepared and accepting of a forthcoming Biden Administration. And, for those more activist Republicans, appear to be betting on retaining a razor-thin Senate majority by winning both runoff Senate races in Georgia. Most likely using the same election mechanism now in dispute and most likely run by the same election officials. The idea being that retaining the Senate will allow “We the People” to retain some semblance of the checks and balances envisioned by the Founding Fathers. However, even with a slim majority in the Senate, there is no guarantee that a Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, and other squishy RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) will remain faithful to the GOP.

Unfortunately, we will see a return of the establishment swamp creatures who are salivating over the return of congressional earmarks. To believe that any Member of Congress can remain in office without returning pork to their districts is to naïvely believe in the tooth fairy.

Statistical allegations…

The latest “Hail Mary” play in Georgia is a 64-page lawsuit alleging sufficient mathematical and statistical anomalies to overturn the certification and either force a new election (unlikely) or allow the Republican-dominated Georgia State Legislature to select the electors.

“What was filed today clearly documents that there are literally tens of thousands of illegal votes that were cast, counted, and included in the tabulations the Secretary of State is preparing to certify,” said Ray S. Smith III,  lead counsel for the Trump Campaign.  “The massive irregularities, mistakes, and potential fraud violate the Georgia Election Code, making it impossible to know with certainty the actual outcome of the presidential race in Georgia.”

"Data experts also provided sworn testimony in the lawsuit identifying thousands of illegal votes: 2,560 felons; 66,247 underage voters, 2,423 votes from people not registered;  1,043 individuals registered at post office boxes; 4,926 individuals who voted in Georgia after registering in another state; 395 individuals who voted in two states; 15,700 votes from people who moved out of state before the election; 40,279 votes of people who moved without re-registering in their new county; and another 30,000 to 40,000 absentee ballots lacking proper signature matching and verification."

“We are asking the Court to vacate the certification of the presidential election and to order a new statewide election for president.   Alternatively, we are asking the Court to enjoin the certification and allow the Georgia legislature to reclaim its duty under the U.S. Constitution to appoint the presidential electors for the state,” Smith concluded <Source>

Statistical sampling leading to the conclusion that the number of projected anomalies, to the 95-99% confidence interval where at least 95 times out of a hundred the sample will reflect the reality of the larger universe, greatly exceeds the margin necessary to reverse the election results. With these numbers, one could characterize the anomalies as “widespread.”

Before we go any further, let us remember that the Democrats in government are willing to use the same type of statistical sampling to charge corporations with a prima facie case of racial, financial, or sex bias. That is, accepting as fact that because the sampled population does not closely match or exceed the individual's representation in the general population, there was a disparate impact and needs to be redressed.

Confirmation bias and objective reality?

What we have seen presented as evidence so far may be the result of “confirmation bias,” the “tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.” Pretty much why law enforcement disregards or downplays casual eyewitness recollections from bystanders. Unless those that filed affidavits are challenged in court, they are of little value in convincing a court or a legislature to reverse the election results.

What do Georgia’s citizens think?

According to a poll by the Trafalgar Group, 53.2% of Georgia voters think that the election was compromised.

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How do state officials certify an election where only 37.9% of the voters believe the election was fair.

The media moguls, tech tyrants, and the loss of trust…

Regardless of the final outcome of the 2020 election, one unescapable and crucially important question remains. What shall “We the People” think, say, or do about our constitutionally-protected free press that has clearly abandoned all journalistic standards and truth-telling in favor of corporate-dictated partisanship? There is little doubt that media manipulation, including censorship, distortion, deletion, omission, and the creation of "fake news” is a demonstrable, documented reality. In short, the media has destroyed much of its credibility, and we no longer know who we can trust.

Even worse, we no longer can trust “the science” as reported by the media because "the science" has been selectively edited to promote a political narrative to support a particular public policy. Or the research has been politically biased by massive government funding to institutions, individual scientists, and specific projects. With little or no support for replication and validation studies that run contrary to the fashionable science of the day.

Bottom line…

It is likely that we have experienced election fraud in the past, but never on this scale or this observable. Or where the loser is screaming fraud and deploying legions of attorneys to look at the minutiae that favored their interpretation.

And, we have never seen the media outrageously try to influence an election. It was bad in 2016, but totally unacceptable in 2020.

There is no clear path for redress and we are totally screwed.

-- steve


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell


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