2020: SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
CALIFORNIANS: ANOTHER REASON TO ELECT DONALD J. TRUMP

VOTER POLLS: MIRACLE OR MIRAGE?

There is little or no doubt in my mind that the progressive socialist democrats are attempting to suppress the GOP vote by discouraging potential voters with discouraging poll numbers that show President Trump failing miserably when matched against Joe Biden, either nationally or on a state-by-state basis.

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Not good news…

Oct. 15, 2020

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Biden Has 11-Point Lead Over Trump Less Than Three Weeks to Election Day

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of registered voters shows Joe Biden leading the president 53% to 42%

Polls Shows Significant Gender Gap in Support for Biden and Trump

Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead over President Trump less than three weeks from Election Day, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of registered voters finds.

Mr. Biden is ahead by 11 points in the national survey, 53% to 42%, following a tumultuous few weeks that included Mr. Trump’s nomination of federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court; the candidates’ contentious, televised debate and the president’s Covid-19 diagnosis and hospitalization.

The survey finds Mr. Trump rebounding from a 14-point deficit earlier this month in a poll taken immediately after the debate with Mr. Biden, but still in a weaker position than in September, when he trailed the former vice president by 8 points. <Source>

Figures may not lie, but liars can figure: polls can be deliberately skewed…

The key to accurate polling is to select the right proportion of respondents with the right demographics and asking the right questions. There are some pollsters who are more political operatives than they are serious market researchers. And there are “push polls” that are structured like opinion polls and purport to request answers of a respondent while feeding them biased information about particular candidates using “loaded” or manipulative questions.

Basic methodology issues – Due to time constraints and costs, most political polling is conducted electronically, and each collection methodology is subject to certain methodological flaws. Of course, the nature and sequence of the questions can also skew a poll’s results.

Who will be selected – Many polls use registered voters and, unfortunately, they may not be likely to vote in any given election.  Or, a number of unregistered voters may be motivated by a particular issue or the election itself and participate in the election using a late registration. More accurate results are obtained with “likely” voters who have participated in a number of elections or have voted recently.

Overweighed/Underweighted Samples – Pollsters intentionally adjust sample selections to compensate for various factors. Consider that younger respondents are less likely to have a landline telephone, so it might be prudent to over-sample individuals in the 18-30-year-old range to compensate for this effect. It is a fact that there is no correct number of Republican or Democrat respondents in a particular sample; therefore, pollsters may overweight or underweight samples to represent groups in their actual proportions within the geographical area being sampled.

Annoyed or non-serious individuals – Pollsters frequently encounter individuals who are annoyed at the interruption of their daily activities or simply don’t care about politics and are likely to give random answers. Some of this can be filtered out by including additional questions to assess the validity of the answers.

Anonymity – This is often the key to obtaining more accurate results. When one believes that they can be identified or held responsible for their answers, they may provide insincere or random responses.

What might be different in today’s political polls that give us hope for a Trump victory…

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In almost every major city governed by progressive socialist democrats, we find rioting, looting, arson, murder, and mayhem. Ordinary, law-abiding individuals are afraid to anger the mob by self-identifying as Trump supporters or speaking out against those who are destroying their lives and rendering their communities unlivable.

And, in this very situation, we find a glimmer of hope that pollsters, pundits, and talking-heads are overstating the support for a Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ticket, especially when we find Biden enmeshed in the type of corruption that leads to the progressive socialist democrats impeaching President Trump and a thoroughly unlikable Kamala Harris who is most likely to become President due to the continuing cognitive decline of Joe Biden. 

Social Desirability Bias

In the social sciences, marketing research, and political polling, one is likely to encounter “social desirability bias” where a respondent answers questions in a manner that will reinforce the respondent’s self-image or be viewed favorably by the interviewer or the respondent’s peers. This can be a major source of problematical polling in business and politics.

Are there any national pollsters who are openly adjusting for social desirability bias?

As far as I can tell, the only polling organization that has extensive experience in attempting to neutralize social desirability bias is the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group. an organization specializing in marketing research and political polling that is headed by Robert C. Cahaly. Using a proprietary methodology, Cahaly’s group correctly projected the 2016 election results in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and the Electoral College.

Some recent results at a time when other polling shows Joe Biden to be a decisive front runner…

Michigan Oct 2020 Presidential Poll -- October 16, 2020 -- Donald Trump 46.5% Joe Biden 45.9% Undecided 2.0%

Florida Oct 2020 Presidential Poll --  October 14, 2020 -- Donald Trump 48.4% Joe Biden 46.1% Undecided 1.6%

Louisiana Oct 2020 Statewide Presidential Poll -- October 14, 2020 -- Donald Trump 54.1% Joe Biden 35.9% Undecided 5.5%

Pennsylvania Oct Presidential Poll -- October 13, 2020 -- Joe Biden 47.4% Donald Trump 45.1% Undecided 1.8%

Arizona October Presidential Poll -- October 9, 2020 -- Donald Trump 47.8% Joe Biden 43.8% Undecided 3.6% 

Ohio October Presidential Poll -- October 5, 2020 -- Donald Trump 47.6% Joe Biden 43.9% Undecided 3.6%

For the full reports (including the other candidates in the race) in context, visit Trafalgar’s site. I have always found Cahaly open and honest as to his methodology and with a cheerful willingness to discuss or defend his findings.

According to a consensus of pollsters, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin represent battleground states where the election is likely to be won or lost. It appears that conventional polling shows Biden with a lead in all but one of them. And the conventional wisdom shows Donald Trump is losing support among suburban women and senior citizens as he faces a so-called “blue wave” of early Democratic voting. Few mention the increased probability of election fraud with a massive influx of mailed ballots. 

Influencing an election…

It appears that the mainstream media and the major social media platforms have a blackout on the actual contents of the Democrat Party Platform, which should worry senior citizens with the destruction of Medicare, low investment yields, and higher taxes. Suburban women, likewise, should be worried about unemployment and the takeover of the suburbs with low-income housing, higher taxes, and, of course, increasing crime. Nor are they covering the actual corruption of the Biden family as they scream “Orange Man BAD!”

Bottom line…  

One of the unexpected consequences of the pro-Biden polls can be found in increased fundraising as donors jump on what they think is a winning bandwagon. Leading to more advertising and an overwhelming media presence. 

However, people lie to market researchers all of the time and somehow think it is different for political polls -- a grossly unrealistic viewpoint. And therein lies the hope of a Trump victory over a corrupt Joe Biden and unlikable Kamala Harris. So, let’s hope people are lying their assess off when they encounter pollsters and others who believe that a Biden victory is an inevitable and preordained fact.

If Biden wins, we are so screwed.

VOTE-GOP-AMERICA

-- steve


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell


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