I grew up with the scientific method – a formalized system of deliberate skepticism that allowed one to question everything, from assumptions and methodology to the findings and conclusions. But that was then and now is now.

It appears that the tenets of liberal science are simple.

Tailor your research to maximize funding and media recognition opportunities.

Ignore the limitations of your field of specialization and feel free to opine on any subject using your “scientist” credentials to lend credibility and gravitas to your blathering.

Forget questions about correlation and causation as you perform statistical tests and use the artifacts of mathematics to claim two-decimal-point precision.

Being featured in the New York Times is the liberal equivalent of being published in a well-regarded peer-reviewed science journal. Your research must have a catchy hook and an backronym, if possible, an acronym deliberately created from a media-friendly phrase whose initial letters spell out your chosen world. If you are having trouble with backronyms, you may wish to seek guidance from the politicians whose legislation often is built around backronyms.

Worthy of consideration by the United Nations IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_


Crime, weather, and climate change


This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States.

The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties.

[OCS: A thirty-year study period is inconsequential to climate change which takes place over geologic time periods. Whatever data you choose to use, the graph will be in the shape of the infamous hockey stick as crime, societal-defined behavior, was virtually non-existent prior to modern civilizations. So, by all means, let us select a data-rich time period that will facilitate our “analysis.” As with the much manipulated terrestrial temperature dataset which is full of man-made cruft, crime statistics are not uniform and, in many cases, the result of political considerations.]

I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects.

[OCS: The methodology sounds very scientific. Let us consider that many crimes are susceptible to time and temperature variables. Some crimes require they be committed during business hours, which tend to be warmer than after-hours periods. And, we would expect that criminal activity might be reduced in sub-zero conditions when getaways over icy roads are unpredictable. And, let us posit that many crimes of passion are spur of the moment and cannot be linked to either time nor temperature.]

The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts.

[OCS: One might expect that there is a correlation between the “comfort”of a criminal perpetrator and their “crime” that might transcends means, motive, and opportunity, but not likely.]

Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.

[OCS: By all means, let us graph the results and then artificially extend the graph to provide a prediction – one large enough to attract media attention. And, make the end-point sufficiently far in the future so as to preclude the probability that someone might actually research a 79 year-old paper and comment.]


Liberal bullpucky …

I wonder if the author of this “wonderful” paper controlled for progressive politics.

You know, the politics of race and oppression that demand that criminals be incarcerated only up to the point where the percentage of those in custody match their minority’s percentage population representation in the general population.

You know, the politics of liberalism where any theft under $950 merits a ticket, not a swift ride to jail. Where, bail is not required and expedited revolving-door processing puts criminals back in the community with only a six-hour delay.

You know, the politics of liberalism and ignoring the enforcement of existing laws, especially those relating to illegal aliens and an influx of foreign criminals.

You know, the politics of progressive political promotion, where prosecutors would rather plea-bargain away serious gun-related charges in order to obtain a guaranteed conviction on a lesser crime.

You know, criminalizing the self-defense behavior of law-abiding citizens who want to protect themselves from the thugs who roam the community.

Perhaps, we should study the relationship between feeding the union-driven criminal justice system and the deliberate creation and tolerance for crime.

I also wonder if the system of crime measuring is as flawed as the government’s system of measuring temperature using ground stations?

Bottom line…

Once again, we find researchers attempting to find exploitable patterns in the natural variability of climate change.

If you look closely, you will find today’s scientists increasingly concentrating their efforts on narrow, but exploitable niches. Or, in other words, as they concentrate, their focus on less and less until they know everything about nothing. And, of course, can extrapolate their limited local findings into global significance.

De-politicize crime and remove criminals from the streets – and climate will means nothing.

We are so screwed.

-- steve

“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell

“Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar

“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS