Thinking back over the mortgage meltdown and the ensuing financial crisis, I wondered if the ascendancy of Donald Trump could be compared to a financial bubble. Where the expanding exuberance of the underlying crowd and continuing media coverage produced a bubble that was somehow increasingly disconnected from Trump’s underlying abilities and his so-called fundamental political assets. Did the public dissatisfaction with the present political status quo and the imagined problem-solving capabilities of Donald Trump manifest themselves in an increasing popular vote? Not a majority vote, but a plurality vote?

But, like a financial bubble, what happens when the reality cannot keep up with expectations and the public starts to realize that Donald Trump’s assumptions, assertions, and proclamations are little more than bumper-sticker platitudes? And  when Trump attempts to explain an issue more fully, that explanation is often incomplete, incoherent, and filled with inconsistencies.

Even though Trump can purchase the words of more learned individuals, where is the tipping point where Donald Trump will burst the bubble by regressing to the real Donald Trump, an ego-maniac who believes that he is smart enough to “wing it” until the election and then back-fill any deficits in knowledge and capabilities with knowledgeable people. Advisors who will remain in the background as he takes massive credit for the successes and hides his failures. Pretty much a prescription for another Obama Administration where transparency and accountability was replaced with obfuscation and stonewalling.

Consider the pattern of the financial bubble as compared with the rise of  Donald Trump ...

We saw the inception of the phenomenon when Trump was able to dominate the news cycle and answer specific policy questions with personal attacks on the other candidates. We saw a period of acceleration when Trump started winning, not by a majority positions, but by a plurality made possible by the remaining candidates in the race. This period of acceleration was interrupted by continued large rallies that substituted for on-the-ground retail politicking and reinforced by those who ignored policy issues in favor of applauding continuing personal attacks. So, where is the reversal point that will see Donald Trump peak, and the beginning of an accelerated slide on the downside – followed by a political crisis that will demand a radical solution.

Will Donald Trump be able to compensate for his ego-mania and weak policy perspectives by bringing a Vice President with functional knowledge. Someone like Newt Gingrich? Or will he continue to pander to the crowd by looking for a Latina to answer questions about ethnicity and gender? Will this be enough to sustain Trump through the first and possibly second GOP convention votes?

Bottom line: is it about freedom, the constitution, the rule of law, and Donald J. Trump?

It’s your country and your decision …

My position …

-- steve