Just a note of relief as we return to science rather than the insane and incomprehensible machinations of President Obama and his fellow travelers who continue to pursue their progressive socialist democrat ideology. – steve
The latest peer-reviewed article that appears to suggest that, whoops, climate change has a natural variability and that the recent pause in the observed global temperature trend is due to “NATURE” and not so much man.
The abstract …
|Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling (Yu Kosaka, Shang-Ping Xie)
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming.
Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity.
Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.
We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.
Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming).
Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA.
Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
Journal: Nature; Year published: (2013); DOI: doi:10.1038/nature12534; Received: 18 June 2013; Accepted: 08 August 2013; Published online: 28 August 2013
Technical Details: The authors used the GFDL [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]coupled global climate model. They conducted three simulations:
A WOW for at least on climate scientist, Judith Curry …
For those who know nothing about Judith Curry’s reputation, she is a well-credentialed climate scientist with an open mind. And, it is often her willingness to consider alternative viewpoints that riles those dogmatic ideologues who are certain that global warming is mostly attributable to human activities and that strong politically-controlled public policies are the prescriptives for preventing a planetary catastrophe. What really bothers the climate ideologues is that Curry apparently believes science is not performed by consensus and that one needs to objectively examine the facts.
Curry has stated that she is troubled by the "tribal nature" of parts of the climate-science community, and what she sees as stonewalling over the release of data and its analysis for independent review. She has written that climatologists should be more transparent in their dealings with the public and should engage with those skeptical of the scientific consensus on climate change. <Source>
From Curry’s blog …
What is mind blowing is Figure 1b, which gives the POGA C simulations (natural internal variability only). The main ’fingerprint’ of AGW has been the detection of a separation between climate model runs with natural plus anthropogenic forcing, versus natural variability only. The detection of AGW has emerged sometime in the late 1970′s , early 1980′s.
Compare the temperature increase between 1975-1998 (main warming period in the latter part of the 20th century) for both POGA H and POGA C:
- POGA H: 0.68C (natural plus anthropogenic)
- POGA C: 0.4C (natural internal variability only)
I’m not sure how good my eyeball estimates are, and you can pick other start/end dates. But no matter what, I am coming up with natural internal variability associated accounting for significantly MORE than half of the observed warming.
Like I said, my mind is blown. I have long argued that the pause was associated with the climate shift in the Pacific Ocean circulation, characterized by the change to the cool phase of the PDO. I have further argued that if this is the case, then the warming since 1976 was heavily juiced by the warm phase of the PDO. I didn’t know how to quantify this, but I thought that it might account for at least half of the observed warming, and hence my questioning of the IPCC’s highly confident attribution of ‘most’ to AGW. Read more at http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/pause-tied-to-equatorial-pacific-surface-cooling/
It seems reasonable to believe that if Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming is a relatively small factor in the observed global climate trend, and subservient to nature’s normal climate variability, that there is no urgency to implement all of the public policies that are being discussed; especially those that provide an advantage to the government while disadvantaging “we the People.”
Bottom line …
The science is not as settled as the IPCC and their cadre of progressive socialist democrats would have you believe. There is enough reasonable doubt about what is occurring in our environment, if man can detect the signal of climate change amid the noise of natural climate variability, and if man can even affect climate change on a global scale. Especially considering that the global climate is a function of such natural factors as: the Sun’s energy output, the Earth’s Orbital position relative to the Sun, the Earth’s rotational and planetary dynamics; the Earth’s vulcanology and plate tectonics; the thermodynamics of deep ocean currents, and the major greenhouse gas, water vapor, – all of which appear beyond man’s direct control.
And, if one want’s to illustrate the ugly intrusion of politics into science, one needs go no further than the governmental promotion of public policies relating to “cap and trade,” allowing gross polluters to keep polluting the air, water, and land of localities – killing or sickening local populations – in return for purchasing government-sanctioned pollution indulgences from for-profit entities managed by the Wall Street Wizards.
Not to mention the Orwellian doublespeak of the progressive socialist democrats who continue to demonize the life-giving gas, carbon dioxide, as the root of all global warming. In spite of the fact that the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide lags the rise in global temperature by 600 – 1000 years (depending on the dataset and time range) and thus cannot be causal. Not only are the beneficial effects of increased carbon dioxide ignored, there are those who will not even consider the most simple explanation for the rise of carbon dioxide, that it is a result of the warming oceans outgassing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Big money has corrupted climate science in a way not seen in other disciplines. Much of the corruption is simply the result of the natural selection of scientific research projects that favors the funding of projects that appear to track the prevailing wisdom of those doing the funding. Few scientists want to buck the trend and appear as contrarians – especially when their funding, promotions, publications, and career are placed on the line. All confirmed by the “Climate-gate” e-mails that saw the covert manipulation of the peer-publishing process and methodology of career destruction actually being discussed between prominent climate researchers whose life-long career work were being challenged by recent findings.
Science will continue to be done. And, not by consensus. But, it remains for all of us to ensure that our corrupt politicians do not use science to change our way of life and reduce our freedom in the name of a international socialist agenda.
And, as a final caution: models are merely by pale imitations of the awesome power and dynamics of natural processes; especially chaotic systems and self-regulating mechanisms.
“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!
“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw
“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”
“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS "The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius “A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell “Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar “Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS
“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS