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Climate change could slash snowfall in Southern California mountains?

Start with a stupid headline …

While the headline “Climate change could slash snowfall in Southern California mountains” may be descriptive of the article’s thrust, it is also nonsensical and misleading. Owing to the natural variability of climate, anything could happen. Even turning the desert that we know as the Southland into a permanent winter wonderland. And, this “could” ambiguity is the model for progressive scare tactics exploiting scientific studies that are often filled with caveats and weasel words. The key cautionary word is “study.”

Let’s analyze …

Climate change could slash snowfall in Southern California mountains

Climate change is likely to wipe a lot of the white from those postcard winter scenes of Los Angeles ringed by snow-capped mountains, according to new research. A UCLA study released Friday projects a significant decline in snowfall on the ranges that provide a dramatic backdrop to urban Southern California.

By mid-century, the amount of snow draping the mountains could decrease 30% to 40%, researchers say. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the ranges could lose two-thirds of their snow by century’s end. 

 The largest greenhouse gas, water vapor, is beyond man’s control and carbon dioxide is not a significant factor as it lags the rise in temperatures – so it cannot be causal. Thus, the entire hypothesis of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming is based more on political pipe dreams than it is hard science.

Can you say “conflict of interest” …

“It kind of cuts to our identity,” said Jonathan Parfrey, a commissioner with the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power who is also executive director of Climate Resolve, a local nonprofit concerned with climate change.

Here is a comment from a political appointee, a commissioner with the LADWP, who just happens to be the executive director of Climate Resolve, a progressive organization designed to push climate issues as justification for expansive and intrusive public policies.     

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 What nonsense. The reality is that climate change is happening everywhere and is beyond man’s ability to mitigate the natural variability of climate. While Climate Resolve is dedicating themselves to creating solutions to meet the challenge, they appear to be misguided. If Climate Resolve were serious, they would be advocating public policies involving replacing or repairing our infrastructure with climate resilient designs and materials. They would be altering zoning laws and building codes to mitigate damages caused by natural events. Say, like an earthquake that presents a more eminent threat than climate beyond man’s control. If they are speaking about pollution, why would they be pushing cap-and-trade – allowing gross polluters to continue polluting our land, water, and air by purchasing government-sanctioned indulgences created and marketed by the Wizards of Wall Street? And, are they so blind and stupid as to realize that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is beneficial to plant growth and oxygen generation. Check out the staff of Climate Resolve and you will find the usual suspects – progressives with backgrounds in politics, community organizing, and as activist/advocates. All public policy wonks seeking to get more money from the public teat. 

It appears to me that having a climate activist on the board of a public utility is a clear conflict of interest.

Can you say “special interest?”  

The research, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, is the second study in a series examining the effects of climate change on the Los Angeles region.

The progressives love to demonize the big energy companies, especially coal and nuclear, as the special interests that are denying global warming. Failing to recognize, or perhaps not caring, that the largest special interest is a self-serving government. Seeking to enlarge the size and scope of government, make their bureaucracy immune from the economic and social forces that affect us all, and paying for their “special” status with never-ending taxpayer funds. Truth be told, there is no constitutional provision for the United States Department of Energy which has dramatically failed its primary mission – to make the United States energy independent and to reduce our reliance on foreign energy sources that complicate and contradict prudent foreign policies. Leading America to protect dictators and dictatorships that threaten democracy, and in some cases, threaten to destroy the United States of America.

Gross inaccuracies in flawed computer models do not disappear or become more accurate when their scope is downsized …   

  Scientists at the UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences downscaled 30 global climate-change models to the regional level, factoring in local topography. Professor Alex Hall, a coauthor of the study, said the regional simulations allowed researchers to examine the impacts of rising temperatures at an exceptionally small scale.

Overlooking the fact that computer models do not produce scientific facts nor output to the certitude needed to produce life-altering public policies, downscaling flawed models with suspect input data is meaningless. Summarized as “garbage in, garbage out.” Global climate, like the stock market, is a chaotic system that is mostly immune to simulation by computers. We are living in an urban heat island that may affect our local weather, and if you wanted to do some serious projections, you would be looking at ENSO (El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation) factors along with cyclic variations. Not global climate models with suspicious carbon dioxide forcings.

Two for the price of one …

The study employed two climate change scenarios.

Under the “business-as-usual” scenario, global greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise throughout this century, pushing up temperatures.

Under the second, “mitigation” scenario, emissions peak within the next two decades and then steadily decline, limiting the temperature climb.

Researchers compared the results with snowfall from 1981-2000, when an average of more than 10 inches a month could fall during the winter at high elevations of the Tehachapi, San Emigdio, San Gabriel, San Bernardino and San Jacinto mountains. More than 40 inches a month can coat the peaks.

Snow will disappear from the lowest elevations that now receive it, the study concluded. If greenhouse-gas emissions are curbed, snow loss at higher elevations would stabilize at about 30% by mid-century. But if emissions continue to climb — forcing more warming — snowfall would drop 40%. By the final decades of the century, it would only be a third of present-day amounts. The decline would be particularly noticeable in the northern hills of the San Gabriels and the area between the San Gabriel and Tehachapi ranges, the researchers found.

It is amazing how people confuse correlation with causation. It can be proven to a statistical certainty (high correlation) that drug users all drink water in some form. But that does not prove drinking water is a causal factor or even a contributing factor to drug use. Thus, there appears to be little evidence that rising global greenhouse emissions are linked to rising temperatures. In fact, the case is stated backwards. Rising temperatures are likely to cause rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as the warming oceans give off their dissolved carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These findings are not scientific fact, they are silicon silliness based on false assumptions. You might want to ask yourself how accurate are these models when the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, although global temperature has declined over the last decade? Check out this graph from climate researchers to see how the models compare to reality. Whoops!

CMIP5-19-USA-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT

 Time for the progressive politics …

Unless we make some dramatic changes in our greenhouse-gas emissions, there’s just not going to be the same options available,” Parfrey said, referring to the classic Southland boast that outdoors enthusiasts can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon.

And what are those dramatic changes that must be taken. Look closely and you will find nothing but pure socialism. A government greatly enlarging their size and scope, higher taxes, higher costs of goods and services, and the tremendous restriction on your freedoms as the government now defines acceptable activities and behaviors.

Does your loss of freedom and higher costs even matter?

State water managers are greatly concerned about the expected drop in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir for much of California. But Richard Atwater, a former general manager of the Inland Empire Utilities Agency, said snow loss in Southland mountains was of less concern.

Here the snow is pretty iffy anyway, and it’s irregular,” said Atwater, who heads the Southern California Water Committee. “It doesn’t affect our capturing and recharging into groundwater basins, whether it’s on the San Gabriel River or the Santa Ana River.”  “The bigger issue,” he added, is “that with climate change, we’re going to have more intense storms, flashier storms. That’s just so much harder to capture.”

There is no proof that global climate change will result in more intense storm activity and there is the suggestion that ENSO and other cyclic factors have more to do with storm activity than the global climate trend. Consider that the strength of a storm is dependent on the energy difference between hot and cold temperatures (energy transfer), and the high and low barometric pressues that drive the winds that bring the weather. And, severity is often a proxy for the storm's path over ill-protected, high-density populations with inadequate building codes.  

More political-speak from an activist ...

The Southern California Water Committee (SCWC) — established in 1984 — is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public education partnership dedicated to informing Southern Californians about our water needs and our state’s water resources. Through measured advocacy, SCWC works to ensure the health and reliability of Southern California’s water supply.

Spanning Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura, Kern and Imperial counties, SCWC’s approximately 200 member organizations include leaders from business, regional and local government, agricultural groups, labor unions, environmental organizations, water agencies, as well as the general public.

The diversity of our membership sets SCWC apart and enhances our influence, giving us the unique ability to take an all-inclusive approach to our efforts as we facilitate productive dialogue and build consensus to solve California’s most critical water issues.

Most of the members of the SCWC are political entities, water districts, special interest vendors, and of course, the progressives who are pushing the pro-government, anti-consumer agenda.

Bottom line …

Global warming is global nonsense. A ruse to allow the progressives to convince the voting public to accept their socialist agenda with a minimum of fuss and blowback. That is, until you understand that it is your freedom and future you are ceding to politicians who serve themselves and not the public.

While the researchers might be honest and ethical, just remember that they are subject to institutional bias – that is, they propose and execute research that is likely to garner personal and public attention, attract funding and improve their status with their respective institutions. Researchers are unlikely to fight to fund and execute research that runs counter to their funding sources, their high-powered colleagues, and the general consensus unless it appears that there is a huge personal and professional payoff. Something that is as unlikely as man controlling our the planetary dynamics that influence our climate.

-- steve

Reference Links …

Climate change could slash snowfall in Southern California mountains - latimes.com


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

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“Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar

“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS


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