IT'S [NOT] ON! Sunday (4-14-13) NORTH KOREA WILL LAUNCH MISSILES TODAY AND JAPAN IS PREPARED TO SHOOT THEM DOWN?? (Updated)
Update 05: Monday 3/15/13 in the U.S. and NO UN KNOWS where Kim Jong-un might be or what happened to the widely suspected missile launch. Perhaps all of the tough talk spooked China and they took some form of covert action. Maybe the Dear Leader is either the Dormant Leader or the Dead Leader? Another mysterious silence?
Update 04: It is 3:00 a.m. in the USA, 7:00 p.m. in North Korea, with sunset at 7:14 ... and nothing appears to be happening. Leading one to believe that the joint United States/China and United States/Japan talks may have been succesful in persuading the North Koreans from testing missiles or engaging in any provacative action. Considering the military strength surrounding the nation -- prepared for action -- it would not be surprising if North Korea decided to postpone any tests; catching everyone by surprise once again.
Update 03: It is 4:00 p.m.(12:00 a.m. USA PDT) in North Korea and they still have not broadcast any warnings to ships and aircraft which normally precede international tests. Perhaps, Secretary of State John Kerry pomised the regime a face-saving meeting in return for standing down his missile tests. Some believe that there may be a night launch that could serve as a justification if the missiles were shot down. The waiting continues. There is no mention of the presence of Kim Jong-un as he has not been seen in public since April 1, 2013.
Update 02: Check the date and time in North Korea here. It is believed that the launch will proceed in the daylight hours so that technicians can observe the launch and the media can cover it on national television. There are now indications that the North Koreans may want to reduce tensions -- announcing that this is a two day holiday and giving the appearances that the missile battery in potentially standing down -- at least for the time being. Perhaps the DPRK wants to ramp up the tension in the region and media coverage; or perhaps the Kerry-China announcement of cooperation has lead to a lessening of tension? REMEMBER THE NORTH KOREAN DAY EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, APRIL 15TH, 2013 IN THE UNITED STATES.
Update 01: Check the date and time in North Korea here. It is believed that the launch will proceed in the daylight hours so that technicians can observe the launch and the media can cover it on national television. At 12:41 pm (4-14-13) in California, it is 4:41 a.m. on April 15th in North Korea.
Original Blog Post ...
It appears that continuing surveillance of North Korea’s missile launch site, located on the East Coast of North Korea, indicates that they have fueled a number of missiles which are now transmitting telemetry information to the launch site. Thus, it is almost a certainty that the North Koreans will celebrate the 103th birthday of Korea Founder Kim Il-sung's with a missile launch.
In Japan, it appears that Japan is prepared to call Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s bluff about the destruction of the missile being an act of war.
A cartoon widely circulating in China warns the Korean Leader that peeing on America, Japan and South Korea maybe the death of him …
Bottom line …
There was a significant difference between the Korean version and English version warning to diplomats and visitors to leave the region leading one to believe that the launch will be a continuation of “business as usual.”
If the missiles are shot down, then there is a binary decision. One, they can remain silent or announce to their people that the launch failed due to technical difficulties; or two, they can declare the shoot-down an act of war and decide to take some action. However, it is unlikely that they will escalate the issue without consulting China.
It is likely that China is fed-up with the antics of North Korea and its destabilizing influence in the region. Because China may be held accountable by the international community for what occurs in North Korea, they are acutely aware of the cost of a collapse of North Korea. So, after any missiles are shot down, they might quietly exert pressure on the DPRK to surrender their nuclear weapons to China for “safekeeping.” Thus earning the respect and gratitude of the entire Western world for ending the 60-year stand-off. Whether or not China will depose Kim Jong-un or that he will succumb to a tragic accident.
There is some concern that the missile may contain some nuclear material and that a shoot-down will contaminate some area and be blamed on those who shot down the missile. Unlikely, but a consideration.
Wait and Watch!
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“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS