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GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING/CHANGE: NUMBERS WITHOUT SUBSTANCE

Science is a game of classification and numbers relating to observations about our physical world.

Unfortunately, there are those who continue to put forth theories about global climate change which are based on flawed computer models, suspect assumptions and heavily manipulated data.

Many research studies advanced by individuals acting on behalf of their own self-interest or that of their institutions which will continue to receive additional large sums of money from government and foundations in the form of research grants and subsidies. 

But the heart of the matter is that most of these models cannot account for the cooling trend over the last decade nor deal with downturns in the global mean temperature.

Which brings me to today’s rant …

All of the alleged findings only seem to reinforce a political challenge. How can “We the People” force our government to abandon public policy based on a number of  incomplete theoretical models, but which lack the specificity, accuracy and reliability to be used to make public policy which would significantly impact our nation’s economy, the livelihood of its citizens and the very essence of individual choice and freedom.

Looking at the numbers …

After reviewing the literature detailing the siting and conditions of temperature measurement, the density of measurement stations, the encroaching urban “heat islands” and other factors, I find it impossible to believe that man can measure temperatures in any reliable manner so that the temperature readings rise above the “noise” of a naturally chaotic weather system.

That is, I am having trouble believing the scientists can actually measure trend-lines against nature’s inherent variability and to do so in a meaningful and precise manner.

To prove this via experiment, one merely need to take temperature readings in your own back yard. In many cases, the readings will vary within a few degrees giving rise to the suspicion that while I can use a precision calibrated electronic thermometer that provides a decimal readout to a tenth of a degree – there are other factors at play, the most important of which is placement of the thermometer with respect to natural heat sources or heat sinks. 

When scientists show me graphs where the temperature over 1,000 years will fit within a band of plus-or-minus 0.5 degrees Celsius, I am naturally suspicious.

With direct-measure thermometers, satellite measurement systems, proxies using tree rings, ice cores and calcium deposits – I have trouble believing that this information is accurate enough to grant the government additional power over my life, health, welfare and future.

We suspect that climate is cyclical and that the amplitude of the variations are not exactly known and the periodicity is in doubt. We believe that whatever our position in the cycle, the climate will regress to some mean value – which portends (drum role) climate change.

It appears that we are coming out of a little ice age and that our world is warming. How much will it warm and when will the warming regress to cooling is unknown – although some suspect that the cooling for the last decade portends a future cooling trend.

We can also impute that our world has been hotter and colder, with more carbon dioxide and with less carbon dioxide – much of these variations taking place before the industrial revolution or man’s significant impact on Planet Earth. We have also seen evidence of global warming on Venus, where we must totally discount man’s influence.

As for that dreaded carbon dioxide, there are those who will denigrate or ignore the benefits of increasing levels of carbon dioxide. Also ignoring the fact that the rise in carbon dioxide levels lags the rise in temperature – so carbon dioxide can hardly be causal when it comes to global warming.

Why people overlook the simple answer is beyond me. It appears that the carbon dioxide dissolved in our oceans (which cover approximately three-quarters of the globe) and the carbon dioxide found in the atmosphere are more or less constant. If the temperature rises, carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere from the warming oceans and if there is cooling, the oceans hold a greater amount of dissolved carbon dioxide. See Henry’s law which says that the solubility of a gas in a liquid at a particular temperature is proportional to the pressure of that gas above the liquid.

How much has temperature risen over the last 100 years …

“Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures have warmed roughly 0.74ºC over the last century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” <Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report -- Summary for Policymakers>

When you consider the vastness of the globe and the relatively few weather measurement stations, just the statistical errors in such measurements is surely greater than plus or minus one degree Celsius. Which is certainly within the natural variability of our global climate system.

Watch for weasel words in climate projections such as as "if", "might", "could", "probably", "perhaps", "expected", "projected," “believed,” “thought to be” or "modeled" 

Reversal or just more variability …

In January 2008, the four major global temperature tracking systems (ground-based observations from Hadley and GISS, and satellite-based observations from UAH and RSS) have reported that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously from 0.65 to 0.75 degrees Celsius depending on the reporting source. Thus much of the global warming gains have apparently been lost.

Again, all within a one-degree Celsius band of nature’s inherent variability.   

The fact that, over the years, the public policy makers and science institutions tried to play it all ways: first, global cooling, then global warming, the global climate change and now climate impacts … means that the politicians and special interests will do or say anything to advance their self-interest and political agenda.

Bottom line …

As long as temperatures over long periods of time seem relatively stable, we should continue to study the empirical data describing our planet. With consideration, with deliberation and above all with honesty devoid of self-interests or self-serving public policies.

As for scientists and institutions who have deliberately misled us for the purposes of pursuing a public policy agenda, I would defund them and insure that the scientists were publicly castigated for the charlatans, poseurs and frauds they may be.

As for those who made fortunes based on specious allegations, perhaps they should start returning the people’s money in return for staying out of jail.

It is time “We the People” return to the critical thinking which made this nation great. When we could call a spade a spade and frauds were publicly laughed out of town. We need to start electing honest brokers to serve us – not the kind that will compromise with the opposition, but the kind that will say “hell no” no more special interest gravy trains.

As for those of you who want to see what is being done in your name, ask your local weather service for the location of their measuring units. And take a look for yourself. Ask yourself, how you can legitimately measure temperatures to a tenth of a degree when civilization is fast encroaching on once rural temperature measurement stations.

Perhaps what we are really measuring is an expanding industrialized civilization – and the hot air emanating from our politicians as they attempt to convince us that they best know how we should live – and how we should spend our hard-earned money. All based on suspect and inaccurate computer models with highly manipulated data wielded by people who, above all, are self-serving.

Man should be focusing on cleaning up our land, sea and air – and not by selling government indulgences to gross polluters on the theory that someone planted trees in a rainforest and that a mythical bookkeeper balanced natures books. Man should be focusing on clean drinking water, sanitary conditions, eliminating pestilence and increasing the food supply. Operating from a position of abundance rather than seeking control through the management of scarcity. And above all man should concentrate in cleaning up the dishonest and corrupt people who are sucking the lifeblood out of our society with their political and ideological nonsense.

-- steve


“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell


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