“We need to make the weather dramatic because we need to convince our viewers to stay tuned to our station, watch our commercials and pay our salaries.” – anonymous weatherman
Weather, by definition, is a chaotic system – with numerous causes and effects, some known and some unknown –- that defies long-range prediction. All of the smartest scientists and researchers with their sophisticated modeling systems seem to have a have a record of long-range predictions that is said to be marginally worse than that of the “Old Farmer’s Almanac.”
For the record: The Old Farmer’s Almanac is said to use a proprietary combination of information from solar science, climatology and meteorology. However, some have noted that their record is slightly better than random guesses and that their predictions are so vaguely-worded that it is difficult to assess their accuracy. <Source>
Unfortunately, it appears to be the same type of assessment of the predictions by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the InterAcademy Council, an Amsterdam-based organization of the world’s science academies.
“However, authors reported high confidence in some statements for which there is little evidence. Furthermore, by making vague statements that were difficult to refute, authors were able to attach ‘high confidence’ to the statements.” <Source>
As for short-range projections, you cannot possibly account for the natural variability of nature any more than you can predict Earthquakes. Yes, you can monitor the trends and provide general warnings; but you can hardly alter the course of nature any more than you can control the waters of a bursting dam. You let nature take its course and as an enlightened member of the human race you prepare to adapt to the changing conditions in your environment.
You should gravitate towards natural resources: shelter, water, food and profitable employment. Instead of demanding that the government provide social justice, economic justice, climate justice and all of the other justice that requires a Marxist society with its ruling elite.
Instead of wasting billions on government subsidized flood insurance on those who insist on rebuilding in known danger zones, you use public policy to match the cost of the premiums with the attendant risk. If that means only the wealthy can enjoy the Florida coastline or live in Hurricane alley, so be it. It’s your choice. Want to live there? Don’t go crying to the government for social justice – it’s not in the Constitution – but work hard to earn enough to engage in your own pleasures and follies.
I have yet to see any inner-city resident demand to risk their lives in a yacht race under gale conditions. Like the one that almost cost billionaire Larry Ellison his life and the lives of his crew. It was his choice. It was his money. And it was his acceptance of the risk.
Those pesky climate models …
Because you can develop, in hindsight, an equation that appears to fit a particular temperature curve, plugging that equation into a climate model does not provide predictive data any more than those who study the past stock prices can predict future ones. Both systems are said to be naturally chaotic and resist any but the most short term mathematical analysis.
As for climate systems, I am betting on the Solar Output, the Earth's Orbit, the Earth's precession and rotational dynamics, volcanoes and plate tectonics, deep ocean currents, oceans which control stored heat and carbon dioxide over man's ability to control anything by government-imposed taxation and the reduction of personal liberties.
Manipulating the weather for profit …
One need only recall the efforts of Fox News to attract both ratings and viewers with their almost non-stop coverage of Hurricane Earl. Using the output of weather models to predict an almost cataclysmal impact with civilization – perhaps rivaling that of Hurricane Katrina. Posting reporters in foul-weather gear next to surf-lines which would have embarrassed even the California surfers who are used to “ankle biter” surf. And which, in a real storm, would have been monumentally stupid and imprudent. How many staged interviews took place: with idiots standing in the gentle winds prognosticating about a storm that never came -- waffling almost endlessly about a storm which had the potential to become a “Category Five” hurricane – before it veered away from land and became a Category One annoyance.
Even now they use dramatic terms to describe a rather ordinary and commonplace storm that is usually seen along the Gulf and Atlantic seaboard. These things are to be expected.
As a child, I remember my Uncle removing us to his brick house with its substantial “storm cellar” only days before our (Milford, Connecticut) ocean-front cottage was covered with sand by a hurricane. Everybody knew it was coming and took precautions. Nobody sat glued to the radio or television to dissect every twist and turn of the storm track. We went about our lives the best we could; and played ping-pong, cribbage and in my aunt’s case, gin rummy while the winds howled above. Sort of fun to brave the wind and the water, using a pre-strung rope hand-line to assist us walking to the kennel where the hunting spaniels needed to be fed. It was over rather quickly and both the cleanup and life resumed immediately. No insurance claims, no government reports. Nothing but a visit to the store to restock a few items.
When are the citizens of America going to grow up. I know that decades of liberal education has ill-equipped our children to function in the real world without governmental guidance, but we need to, as a nation, become self-reliant adults.
What they don’t remind you about Katrina …
Truth-be-told Katrina was a rather ordinary, survivable storm that was turned into a catastrophe by the government’s actions and inactions.
First, New Orleans was a city built below sea level and was protected by a series of levees that were engineered and maintained by the government. Need I say more?
Second, decades of corruption, neglect and the failure to repair or replace problematic levees and pumps were the proximate cause of the problem: the flooding of low-level areas.
Third, unlike an Earthquake, people knew the storm was coming and were issued evacuation orders. Which made the poor and infirm dependent on government services.
Fourth, the actions of the local and state government officials were totally unacceptable. Officials who sat on their fingers while school buses were inundated by water rather than being used to transport citizens in peril to higher ground. The failure of command and control at the local level was astounding.
Fifth, because New Orleans was predominantly black, it was far easier to yell about institutional racism than point to the city’s black democrat power structure that was paralyzed into inaction. The wide-eyed governor apparently was waiting for her aides to tell he what to do as she shuffled about aimlessly.
Sixth, there was a massive breakdown in civil authority – many of the city’s police turning coward and abandoning their posts. Some turning into violent predators, killing civilians and looting stores. Others violated the Second Amendment of the Constitution by overtly disarming law-abiding citizens and making them even more vulnerable to roving bands of thugs. Looters and thugs ran wild in the streets.
In the aftermath, the government funneled billions of dollars into an essentially corrupt city and state – with little or no major progress to show for the investment. Many who relocated refused to return, having found a better life elsewhere. Look at the neighboring gulf states which were also affected – they managed to weather the storm and rebuild where necessary. The difference: their local and state governments were not stealing everything that was not nailed down.
Nobody has even begun to tally the costs of all the government waste, including the thousands of unused trailers which were allowed to sink into the mud. Rather than let people use them, guards patrolled the area. Even today, the assistance continues.
The lessons to be learned …
While there are many lessons to be learned, the most important one is that in a true natural disaster or even a widespread emergency, self-reliance and neighborly assistance is the answer to the crisis. If you, your family and your neighbors can survive for a week or so without government assistance – help is on the way.
The next important lesson is that you cannot rely on politicians to tell you the truth about the weather when they use speculative science to drive public policy. Especially when the institutions and their scientists are being paid literally billions of dollars to produce results which encourage, not more scientific enlightenment, but further government money.
And even if you do not believe in God or note wish to take my word for it: man, with all of our technology and knowledge, cannot manipulate the global climate with public policies anymore than King Canute the Great could command the tides of the sea to go back.
Bottom line …
We are experiencing a historical decade of governmental corruption and incompetence, where the special interests have literally bought both political parties and most of their politicians. Whether they are arranging highly-compensated, prestigious employment for their special friends, aiding the special interests in looting our treasury or pursuing an “historic” political ideology, our government has very few “honest brokers” serving we the people.
What President Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, failed to realize is that never wasting a real or imagined crisis cuts both ways. Instead of the people blindly allowing the government to take action; the people are seeing the massive corruption, incompetence and general ineptitude of those who are attempting to tell us how to live our lives.
And unless we reverse this trend starting in November’s election, we will be faced with the socialism of France and the chaos of Mexico.
-- steve
P.S. For more on this subject, I strongly suggest you read Alan Caruba’s Warning Signs: “Hurricane Humility ”
For the more scientifically inclined, you may want to revisit “chaos theory” which states that it is sometimes possible to detect and predict short-term effects in long-term chaotic data. You might want to start here.
Reference Links:
Earl Hits East Coast with a Whimper