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Global Warming: Political Policy Wonks sound the alarm: 7 Years to Climate Midnight

Global Climate Change: The path to enlightenment starts with knowing what you are talking about...

Readers of my blog know that I do not blindly ascribe to the theory that global climate change is man-made and requires a costly, freedom-altering political solution; the result of which may not be evident for hundreds of year, if ever.

I believe that global climate change is cyclical and that the factors which influence climate change such as the solar output, the rotation of the earth, the earth’s core composition and heat transfer, the oceanic currents and the greenhouse gases, the most prevalent one of which is not carbon dioxide but water vapor, form a dynamic system which can hardly be influenced by the puny efforts of man.

I also believe, far from the pronouncements of Al Gore and his band of power- and profit-driven special interests, that the science is not well-established and that there is no consensus among scientists about the causality of the global climate variability; and hence, no definitive mitigation or cure does exist.

I believe that the current emissions cap and trade system is a canard which will allow governments to exert far greater control over their citizens, raise taxes and effect a global re-distribution of wealth based on socialistic theories. That is not to say that the ruling elite under such political systems does not continue to grow wealthier and more powerful by aligning themselves with the political doctrine of the day and paying due respect, including a piece of the action, to those in power.

I also believe that the current climatological models are inherently flawed as they are rather simplistic, use artificial adjustments to make the numbers match some form of historical climate data or proxy which simulates the climate data for well-selected and very short time periods. These models can not be relied on to predict short-term, let alone extremely long-term effects with any degree of reliability.

I think that the United Nations and Al Gore are fundamentally dishonest by using outlier data from model runs without citing any degree of reliability or probability. That is, mathematical models can produce results, but few know if the results are real or merely coincidental when they match the physical phenomenon which they purport to model. I have a special degree of distrust for Al Gore whose movie used artificial, computer-generated Hollywood footage from another movie to illustrate ice-calving – without any disclaimer or citation. Another example of Hollywood smoke and mirrors driving a predestined conclusion.

So I am rather encouraged when I read my edition of IEEE’s (Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers) Spectrum and find that there are plans afoot to build a specialized computer to model that most prevalent and powerful of greenhouse gases: water vapor. 

According to “A Computer for the Clouds” by Philip E. Ross…

“We think scientific computing is ripe for a change,” says Michael Wehner, a climatologist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. ‘Instead of getting a big computer and saying, ‘What can we do?' we want to do what particle physicists do and say, ‘We want to do this kind of science—what kind of machine do we need to do it?' ”

“Wehner and two engineers, Lenny Oliker and John Shalf, also of Lawrence Berkeley, have proposed perhaps the most powerful special-purpose computer yet. It is intended to model changes in climatic patterns over periods as long as a century. Specifically, it should be able to remedy today's inability to model clouds well enough to tell whether their net effect is to warm the world or cool it. To solve the problem, climatologists figure they need to deal in chunks of the atmosphere measuring 1kilometer on a side—a job for an exaflop machine, one with 1000 times more computing power than even Roadrunner can provide.”

Now this is government money that I am willing to advocate they spend …

Before embarking on an economy-busting carbon emissions trading system that only benefits the gross polluters, the Wizards of Wall Street who will trade these credits much as Enron traded electricity to the detriment of California, and the special interests who require government grants, subsidies and tax benefits to make their pipe-dreams even close to economically feasible, I am willing to support spending more  money on basic research. And not research of the NASA-preordained/Hansen brand where politics influences the science.   

“The researchers are now trying to validate their claims with a hardware mock-up, which they are building in collaboration with Tensilica, a custom-chip supplier in Santa Clara, Calif. The plan is to bench-test a single processor by November and a parallel array of processors by the middle of 2009. If the claims are vindicated, the researchers hope to get government funding for a full-size machine.”

“Critics of special-purpose machines say they've heard it all before. “The problem is that when we devise a new way to solve a problem, the machine designed for the old way will no longer be as good,” says Jack Dongarra, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Tennessee.”

“But according to Horst Simon, who heads the Lawrence Berkeley lab's research computing center, the proposed machine would not be so specialized that a new algorithm would render it instantly obsolete.”

“ ‘We are building hardware that runs not just one algorithm but a large class of related algorithms,’ he says. ‘We are trying to eliminate unessential features of the architecture, much of it developed for desktop applications, and to optimize it for a class of applications that is scientifically focused.”’

And if the New York liberals and Wall Street Wizards want to worry about something a little more pressing and concrete …

Want to worry about something in the future that may have more impact on your life than a 1.2-degree (Celsius) temperature rise?

“Earthquake risks in the greater New York City area are reassessed in a major study released today by a team of seismologists based at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, N.Y. Though the report reaffirms that large earthquakes are relatively rare in New York, it finds that fault patterns are more complex than previously appreciated. In particular, two fault systems are found to converge very close to the controversial Indian Point nuclear power plant, 24 miles north of the city.”

“The authors of the study catalogued 383 earthquakes from 1677 to 2007, and, in those three-plus centuries, identified three magnitude 5 quakes capable of causing serious damage. They estimate that a potentially catastrophic category 6 quake might occur every 370 years, and a category 7 every 3,400 years. Though those probabilities are relatively low, the damage risk from a New York City earthquake is still very high because of the city’s concentration of people and physical infrastructure, observes Lynn Sykes, the very eminent seismologist who led the study.”  <Source>

What can YOU do?

Common sense dictates you know what you are talking about before you propose a cure. Especially a political cure which is likely to mean bigger government, higher taxes, wealth redistribution and the proliferation of corrupt special interests and the politician-pandering lobbyists.

Demand practical answers to tough questions before empowering any politician or political program with enough muscle to become self-defeating and self-destructive.

Even if global climatology did indicate that we were in a temperature upswing, prior to some downswing in the distant future, don’t you agree that your hard-earned money should be better spent on developing methods and structures to cope with these projected climate changes?

How much of YOUR lifestyle are YOU willing to sacrifice NOW for someone who will live hundreds of years from now – in a time when science may have solved many of the pressing issues of survival on this planet?

In my world, financial wizards do not play any meaningful part other than serving as commodity brokers who make their living by buying and selling commodities that are being sometimes artificially churned to improve income yields. They are like the lawyers who write complex laws to insure that you feel the need for their services lest you get into trouble. Or politicians who want to make you dependent and beholden to their government for your existence.

Man was born free, and God willing, shall stay free by avoiding the type of socialistic policies employed by Russian and Chinese planners which have almost destroyed their nations. These are the people who require extreme gun control and subservience lest they be overthrown from power.

Common sense is uncommon – but if you do not exercise it, you will forfeit it to those who want your share of the American dream.

-- steve

Quote of the Day: “A man travels the world over in search of what he needs and returns home to find it.” --George Moore

A reminder from OneCitizenSpeaking.com: a large improvement can result from a small change…

The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

Reference Links:

IEEE Spectrum: A Computer for the Clouds

Earthquakes May Endanger New York More Than Thought, Says Study: Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant Seen As Particular Risk|Columbia University Earth Institute

And for the scientifically inclined, the actual research paper: “Observations and Tectonic Setting of Historic and Instrumentally Located Earthquakes in the Greater New York City–Philadelphia Area by Lynn R. Sykes, John G. Armbruster, Won-Young Kim, and Leonardo Seeber|Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 98, No. 4, pp. 1696–1719, August 2008, doi: 10.1785/0120070167

“Nullius in verba.”-- take nobody's word for it!

“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.”-- George Bernard Shaw

“Progressive, liberal, Socialist, Marxist, Democratic Socialist -- they are all COMMUNISTS.”

“The key to fighting the craziness of the progressives is to hold them responsible for their actions, not their intentions.” – OCS

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." -- Marcus Aurelius

“A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves, and traitors are not victims... but accomplices” -- George Orwell

“Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt." (The people gladly believe what they wish to.) ~Julius Caesar

“Describing the problem is quite different from knowing the solution. Except in politics." ~ OCS